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《经济学人-展望2018》-学习笔记连载21

Tim的人生笔记 2020-06-28 14:03:40

Political football

足球政治化

Gideon Rachman


Guess who I support? 猜我支持谁?


The 2018 soccer World Cup will put Russia in the global spotlight

2018年世界杯使俄罗斯成为全球关注的焦点

When the World Cup kicks off, for better or worse, Russia will show another side of itself as the world watches

随着世界杯打消,不管怎样,俄罗斯将在全世界的关注中展现自己的另一面


The right to host the FIFA World Cup is a fiercely contested honour. When Russia was awarded the tournament of 2018, it defeated a rival bid from England—as well as joint proposals from Belgium and Holland, and Spain and Portugal.

FIFA世界杯举办权是各国激烈竞争的荣誉。俄罗斯击败了对手英格兰,以及比利时和荷兰(联合申办)、西班牙、葡萄牙,最终获得主办权。


Yet hosting the world’s most popular sporting event also entails 使(人)承担,使负担,使蒙受 real risks for the Russian government. In previous tournaments, football has become a backdrop for political and social protests. In Brazil in 2014, President Dilma Rousseff was routinely 惯常地,例行地 booed vt. 嘘;向…喝倒采 when she appeared at matches—a sign of the unpopularity that was to lead to her impeachment and removal from office in 2016. Football provided little solace for the Brazilian president. Her country’s celebrated team, widely expected to win the cup, suffered a humiliating 7-1 defeat by Germany in the semi-finals. The “feel-good” mood that the Brazilian government had fondly adv. 天真地;怜爱地;温柔地 hoped would be generated by the tournament swiftly gave way to something much more sour. 

然而举办这样一场全球最受欢迎的运动赛事也将使俄罗斯政府承担真正的风险。在之前几届赛事中,足球成为政治抗议、社会抗议的背景。2014年巴西世界杯,迪尔玛·罗塞夫总统每每出现在赛事中,都是一片嘘声— 这是一种不受欢迎的标志,这种标志也引发对她的弹劾,她在2016年并免职。足球没能给这位巴西总统带来慰藉。最初,外界普遍预期饱具名望的巴西队将赢得世界杯,而巴西队在半决赛对阵德国队时却惨遭羞辱,以1比7大比分落败。巴西政府曾天真地寄希望于世界杯借此激发一种“感觉良好”的心态,然而在这之后,这种心态迅速跌至谷底。


Russia is a far more and less democratic country than Brazil, so there will be fewer opportunities to use the tournament as a forum for public protest. Still, the World Cup will take place at a sensitive time. The first match, in Moscow on June 14th, will be less than three months after Russia’s presidential election. 

相比巴西,俄罗斯是个控制极其严格、极不民主的国家,想利用世界杯作为公众抗议的平台机会渺茫。况且,世界杯将在一个敏感的时段举行,俄罗斯举行总统选举之后不到三个月,6月14日,第一场比赛将在莫斯科打响。


Given the nature of the Russian system, there is little doubt that Vladimir Putin will have secured re-election. Nonetheless, the last presidential poll in 2012 was preceded by large anti-government demonstrations in Moscow and elsewhere, which alarmed Mr Putin. This time, the anti-Putin forces, led by the charismatic adj. 超凡魅力的;神赐能力的 Alexei Navalny, are rallying around the issue of official corruption. 

鉴于俄罗斯政治体系的本质,毫无疑问弗拉基米尔·普京将再次当选。尽管如此,在2012年上一次总统选举之前莫斯科和其它地方爆发了大规模游行示威,这也给普京拉响警报。这一次,由颇具领袖气质的阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼领导的反普京力量将集体声讨政府官员的腐败现象。


In Brazil and South Africa (which staged the tournament in 2010) concerns about official corruption became focused on the inflated 〔价格、数量等〕过高的 costs of building new stadiums. Something similar could easily happen with the Russian World Cup, where there have already been scandals about cost overruns 成本超支. The Krestovsky stadium in St Petersburg, which will be one of the tournament’s major venues, was completed eight years behind schedule and came in 540% over budget. A former vice-governor of the region was charged with accepting a bribe to award a lighting contract for the stadium. But there will be widespread suspicions in Russia that tournament-related corruption ran much deeper. 

在巴西、南非(这两个国家分别举办了2014年、2010年世界杯),关于政府官员腐败的担忧集中在建设新场馆飞涨的成本上。类似的情节也很可能在俄罗斯世界杯发生,现在那里已经传出成本超支的丑闻了。位于圣彼得堡的克雷斯托夫斯基体育场即将成为赛事主要场馆之一,它的竣工落后于计划八年,超出预算达到540%。该地区前副州长被指控在场馆灯光合同中收受贿赂。但民众普遍怀疑与本次赛事相关的腐败案件深不见底。


注:inflated costs / cost overruns / over budget


The Russian team, which will kick off the competition at the opening match in Moscow, is also a source of concern. The team performed woefully at its last big tournament, the European Championship in France in 2016, losing to both Wales and Slovakia. This might seem like a trivial matter. But Mr Putin has presented himself at home as an agent of national renewal and reassertion 重申;再次断言;再次肯定. He was visibly adv. 明显地;显然;看得见地 deflated when the Russian ice-hockey team was defeated by the United States at the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014. The World Cup is a much bigger stage and Mr Putin will be obliged to attend Russia’s opening game, at the very least. If the national team goes down to a limp 跛行 defeat, which is entirely possible, the symbolic message will be just the opposite of the one the Russian leader is looking for.

将在莫斯科打响赛事开幕战的俄罗斯队也是值得担忧的另一个问题。该队在上一次大型赛事中一败涂地,在2016年法国举行的欧洲杯中先后输给了威尔士和斯洛伐克。这看起来似乎没什么大不了的。但普京在国内标榜自己是国家复兴再次主张的代言人。俄罗斯冰球队在2014年索契冬奥会被美国队击败时可以明显看出他的垂头丧气。世界杯是个更大的舞台,普京必然要参加至少是俄罗斯的开幕战吧。如果国家队惜败,这完全有可能发生,其传达的象征性讯息将于这位俄罗斯领导人的期待的恰恰相反。


The Putin government also has cause to worry about events off the field. Russian football hooligans 流氓 were involved in crowd violence at Euro 2016. And some Russian fans have developed a reputation for directing racist abuse at black players, which would be an acute embarrassment, given the multiracial nature of the tournament. However, the Russian government has had plenty of time to prepare for these problems and will, presumably adv. 大概;推测起来;可假定, have done its utmost to ensure that hooligan groups are kept under control and that fans behave themselves.

同时普京政府有理由担心场外发生的一些动态。俄罗斯的足球流氓也卷入过2016年欧洲杯的群体暴力中,且一些俄罗斯球迷有对黑人球员进行种族侮辱性辱骂的名声,考虑到世界杯赛事的多种族性质,这将导致极度难堪的局面。不过,俄罗斯有足够的时间准备应对这些问题,相比也将尽最大努力确保足球流氓团体被控制住,球迷能守规矩。


A game of two halves

赛事的两个半场

The issues of hooligans and fan behaviour highlight the point that the World Cup is also an opportunity for Russia to refashion 翻新;重做;改造 its global image. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine have led to economic sanctions and a trashing of the country’s international reputation. The Putin government will see the World Cup as a chance to reintroduce Russia to the world, and particularly to the television audiences and travelling fans from the European Union, the country’s biggest trading partner, which has imposed damaging sanctions. 

足球流氓及球迷行为举止的问题也彰显出一点:世界杯也为俄罗斯提供了一次重塑其国际形象的机会。2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚及随后对乌克兰东部的干预引发对其经济制裁,该国的国际声誉也因此崩塌。普京政府会将世界杯视作一次世界重新认识俄罗斯的机会,尤其是对电视机前的观众和那些从欧盟远道而来的球迷而言,欧盟作为该国最大的贸易伙伴也已对其施加颇具破坏性的制裁。 


注:refashion / reintroduce / rebranding


Such efforts at national rebranding can be helped along by a successful World Cup. The tournament staged in Germany in 2006 showcased not just the country’s efficiency but also a fun-loving and welcoming side that was less well-known. The Russian government will hope that foreigners will look beyond the political controversies, and even the football, and enjoy the country’s rich culture, as well as some of its less-discovered second-tier cities, such as Kazan and Samara.

一场成功的世界杯将促进为重塑国家形象做出的努力。2006年德国世界杯不仅展现了这个国家的高效率,还显示出这个国家鲜为人知的一面,它的风趣、热情好客。俄罗斯政府希望外国人的视线超越政治争议,甚至超越足球,去欣赏这个国家丰富的文化,以及诸如喀山、萨马拉这些不为人识的二线城市。


Once World Cups start, they often take on a life of their own, and pre-tournament concerns are forgotten. Mr Putin has every reason to hope that the same thing will happen at Russia 2018.

一旦世界杯开幕,它就成为主角大放异彩,比赛之前的担忧也被忘却。普京有充分的理由希望同样的事情也发生在2018年的俄罗斯。


Vladimir IV

弗拉基米尔四世

Noah Sneider MOSCOW


The men in black move in 黑衣人逼近


Putin heads into his final term

普京进入最后一届任期


Vladimir Putin would prefer not to make a martyr of Alexei Navalny, Russia’s leading opposition politician. So even though Mr Navalny will spend the first part of 2018 rallying young supporters for countrywide protests, hoping to force his way onto the presidential ballot, the authorities may prefer to avoid locking him up 监禁;拘禁 for good. Instead, those who follow his call to march will end up in police vans by the thousands. In the end, Mr Navalny will be barred from running. He will call a boycott, declaring the upcoming election illegitimate. 

弗拉基米尔·普京肯定不希望阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼,这位俄罗斯主要反对党的政治家成为烈士。因此即使2018年上半年纳瓦尔尼将召集年轻的支持者们进行全国范围内的抗议活动,希望挤进总统选举,当局也还是倾向于避免将其终身监禁,而那些追随他的号召的人们却只能被成千上万地逮入警车。最终纳瓦尔尼将被禁止参选。他将号召一场联合抵制运动,宣称即将到来的选举是非法的。


The president will barely blink, dismissing Mr Navalny as a nefarious 

/nɪ'feərɪəs/ adj. 邪恶的;穷凶极恶的;不法的 rabble-rouser n. 煽动者(暴动等的), without so much as uttering his name. In Mr Putin’s mind, re-election has become a technical question. The routine must be respected, but it no longer carries much meaning. This is not an election so much as {not so much A as 与其说A不如说B} a coronation, a formalisation of his historic role as Leader of the Nation. Mr Putin will win handily in March, entitling him to another six years in power, by the end of which he will have ruled for nearly a quarter of a century. 

总统视之如草芥,连眼皮都不会抬一下,他认为这不过是个穷凶极恶的煽动者,甚至叫不上他的名字。在普京心里,再选已经成为一个技术问题,惯例程序总要遵守的,不过那已经没什么意义了。这与其说是场选举不如说是一场加冕仪式,他作为该国领导人这一历史地位的一种形式化。三月份普京将轻松获胜,自己授权再次连任六年,六年后他统治这个国家将达25年之久。


Towards a Time of Troubles

走向动乱时代

The real intrigue 密谋;施诡计〔伤害某人或夺去其权位〕 will begin after the election ends. This presidential term will be the last allowed to Mr Putin under the Russian constitution. Unless he decides to fiddle 〔为了不付钱或多拿钱〕篡改,伪造〔信息〕 the rules or stage another switcheroo n. 突如其来的变化, his victory will mark the beginning of the post-Putin era. 

真正的阴谋将在选举结束后展开。根据俄罗斯宪法,这将成为普京最后一届总统任期。除非他决定篡改规则或是发起另一场骤变,否则他的胜出将昭示后普京时代拉开帷幕。


Perhaps the most vexing adj. 令人烦恼的 question facing the seemingly ironclad 无懈可击的;装甲的;打不破的;坚固的 Russian leader is that of succession. He has built a system that ensures his continued hold on power, but also one in which institutions are subordinate to 使居次要地位 the leader himself (as his deputy chief of staff once infamously said, “No Putin, no Russia”). It is difficult to imagine Mr Putin retreating to a sun-kissed retirement. Will he set himself up to rule without a formal title, in the tradition of ***—as chairman, say, of the Russian Judo Association? Or will he begin grooming 培养,培训 an heir n. [法] 继承人;后嗣;嗣子? How does he envisage vt. 正视,面对;想像 a transfer of power taking place? These are the questions that will haunt President Putin’s fourth term. 

或许让这位看上去似乎有金刚不坏之身的铁血领导人最苦恼的问题就在于继任总统。他已经建立起一个可确保其持久执掌大权的体系,在这个体系中所有国家机构都要绝对服从领导人本人(正如他的总幕僚长曾经无耻地说过:“没有普京就没有俄罗斯”)。很难想象普京退出享受退休后晒太阳的场景。他会承袭***的传统,虽已无实际名衔,却依旧大权在握吗?比如说,明面上做个俄罗斯柔道协会的主席。或者他会准备培养接班人吗?他预想的权力交接将以何种方式发生?这些问题将始终萦绕于普京总统的第四届任期。


Continuing a trend begun in 2016, Mr Putin will reshuffle vt. 重新洗牌;改组;重作安排 ministers, governors and officials, swapping ageing stalwarts 〔某组织或思想的〕忠实拥护者,坚定分子 for younger technocrats n. 技术统治论者;专家政治论者;技术官僚,技术专家官员〔在产业界或政府内有很大权力的技术专家〕 subservient adj. 屈从的;奉承的;有用的;有帮助的 to the president. The long-serving prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, may well find himself sidelined. To replace him, Mr Putin could turn to one of his up-and-coming adj. 积极进取的,很有前途的;日见重要的 stars, such as the new 35-year-old economy minister, Maxim Oreshkin. Or he could tap 选择;推选 an established heavyweight 极具影响力的人 (或组织), like Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin. Any and all moves will be viewed through the lens of successor politics. Let the parlour games 室内游戏〔如猜谜或文字游戏〕begin. 

普京将延续2016年已经出现的趋势,对部长、州长、幕僚官员重新洗牌,换下年老的顽固分子,换上那些对总统唯命是从的年轻技术官僚。长期任职的总理德米特里·梅德韦杰夫很可能发现自己已被边缘化。为了替代他,普京可能将视线转向他眼中的新晋红人,比如年仅35岁的新任经济发展部长马克西姆·奥什金,或者他也可能选择资深的政界要人,比如莫斯科市市长谢尔盖·索比亚宁。他们的任何举动将被放大至总统接班人的角度。一场室内游戏即将上演。


The new government’s first stated task will be economic reform. Though Russia has recovered from the recession of 2014-16, the old oil-based model that fuelled Mr Putin’s early rule has exhausted itself. Without deep changes, Russia faces years of slow growth. The Kremlin has charged a number of groups with preparing (charge sb with doing sth 吩咐,命令) reform plans. Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister, spent much of 2017 devising a strategy to boost Russian growth and usher in technological modernisation. Others including Boris Titov, Russia’s business ombudsman n. 监察专员(专门负责调查人民对政府各部门控告案件的官员);视察官, and Mr Oreshkin have been sketching models of the future, too. 

新任政府首先确定的任务将是经济改革。尽管俄罗斯经济已走出2014至2016年的衰退泥潭,这种老朽的完全依赖石油的经济模式可为普京的早期统治提供燃料也终将消耗殆尽。不经历深刻的变革,俄罗斯的经济增长注定将多年放缓。克里姆林宫已经责成一些团体准备制定改革计划。前财政部长库德林·阿列克谢2017全年都在制定旨在促进俄罗斯经济增长、引领技术现代化的策略。其他包括经济监察专员鲍里斯·蒂托夫、奥列什金也一直在绘制未来的蓝图。


These advisers will try to convince Mr Putin that such reform is a matter of national security. Invoking 援引 China, they will argue that the economy can be opened without loosening control over politics. Their pleas will largely fall on deaf ears 没有被听取;未被理睬

这些顾问谋士会努力劝服普京,这样的改革事关国家安全。他们会援引中国,辩称开放经济的同时又不放松对政治的控制,他们的恳求很大程度上会被置若罔闻。


The Kremlin will instead take a pick-and-mix 随意组合的;综合的;拼合的 approach, blending low-hanging fruit from different plans into a watered-down adj. 打折扣的;用水冲淡的 cocktail. Mr Putin will talk about improving property rights and the investment climate. In a display of magnanimity 

/mægnə'nɪmɪtɪ/n. 宽宏大量;慷慨 before the FIFA World Cup, he will release some of Mr Navalny’s followers, hoping that it quietens 平息 Western critics. 

克林姆林宫会采取一种掺拼的方法,将来自各类计划的“低挂水果”混合在一起,制成一杯掺水的劣质鸡尾酒。普京将谈及提升财产权利,改善投资环境。他将在世界杯大赛前显示其宽宏大量,释放部分纳瓦尔尼的追随者,以期平息来自西方的批评之声。


注:low-hanging food

话中有话,在商务环境中,顾名思义,“低处的果实”有个引申意思,即:容易实现的目标 、可轻易实现的目标。例:私人资本进入碳市场的时间较晚,“ 低挂果实 ”( Low Hanging Fruit )的项目已被前期进入的资本开发完毕, 这些后跟进的资本被推向风险较高、资本需求量较大的项目,如可再生能源。


Neither the liberal opposition at home nor Western leaders will swallow 完全相信;轻信,轻易接受〔不真实的说法、解释等〕 the cynical gesture. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron will find reasons to avoid attending the matches (unless Germany or France reaches the final). Foreign media will harp on 唠唠叨叨,反复讲 about the shoddy infrastructure they find in Russia’s regions. This will only deepen Mr Putin’s belief in the conspiracy against him and the righteousness n. 正义;正直;公正;正当 of his crusade (长期而坚定的) 努力奋斗 against it. His fourth term will begin to shape up 顺利发展;形成;成形 much like his third, with a slow-growing economy, a conservative-nationalist ideology and a defiant stance on the world stage. This will keep him in charge, but increase the likelihood of a Time of Troubles when he goes.

无论国内的自由主义反对派还是西方领导人都不会清信这种玩世不恭的姿态。安格拉·默克尔、埃马纽埃尔·马克龙都有理由避免参加赛事(除非德国或法国进入决赛)。国外的媒体会喋喋不休地谈论他们在俄罗斯各地区发现的劣质基础设施。这只会加深普京的执念,他认为针对他的阴谋正在上演,并为他发起的讨伐抵制寻求正当性。他的第四届任期将与第三届无甚差别,一样是经济增长缓慢、保守的民族主义意识形态、国际舞台上肆无忌惮挑衅的立场。这将使他继续执掌大权,但也加深了他离去之后混乱年代到来的可能性。


A nEU dawn

欧盟新黎明

Tom Nuttall BRUSSELS



At long last, a sense of possibility is in the air

最终有了一种可能性


The European Union will begin 2018 in its brightest mood for a decade. The outbreak of cheer, al-beit still fragile 〔形势〕脆弱的,不稳定的, has several causes: an economic upswing vi. 提高;回升;向上摆动that has Europe outpacing America, receding memories of the migration and other crises, and the reassuring presence of Angela Merkel, embarking on 开始 her fourth and presumably adv. 大概;推测起来;可假定 final term as German chancellor. Perhaps above all, the EU's energies have been restored by the election of Emmanuel Macron, France's passionately pro-European adj. 支持西欧一体化的,支持欧洲联盟的 president, and a sense that the high-water adj. 高水位的;满潮的;裤子特别短的 mark  高水位线;(成就的)巅峰 of Eurosceptic n. 欧洲怀疑论者,指反对欧洲一体化者 populism has been reached. For the first time in years, there is a whiff (气味等) 微弱的一阵 of possibility in the air.

2018年,欧盟将以十年来最明亮的心情开场。尽管这种欢快的心情仍不稳定,但它仍有些缘由:欧洲经济回升上扬,增速超过美国;移民及其它危机的记忆逐渐消退;安格拉·默克尔将开始第四个大概也是最后一个德国总理任期,有她让人很安心。也许最重要的是,强烈亲欧的伊曼纽尔·马克龙当选法国总统让欧盟恢复了能量,人们感觉欧洲怀疑论者的民粹主义已经到了高位不会再高。多年来第一次有了可被感知的些微迹象。


This will find two forms of expression: an assertive adj. 肯定的;独断的;坚定而自信的 agenda centred on integration and growth; and, under Mr Macron's tutelage 受指导(期);受监护(期), a "protective" one to defang 拔(毒蛇等)的牙,拔掉…的尖牙,除去…的毒牙;缴…的械,解除…的武装;削弱;使无害;缓和(敌意) populists. Take trade. The EU will discuss (and in some cases conclude) deals of varying levels of ambition with partners including Japan, Mexico, Mercosur and Australia. But this buccaneering (尤指17和18世纪抢夺西班牙船只的)海盗;(尤指商业上、政治上的)冒险家,投机家 spirit will be tempered 使缓和;使温和;锻炼,使回火 by what Eurocrats n. 欧洲共同市场的官员或职员;欧洲经济共同体的官员 call "realism"—including screening 筛选;审查,甄别;检查 of foreign investments and retaliation against countries that discriminate against European firms (think China). Trade talks will also begin with Britain as it prepares to leave the EU. Expect late-night summitry n. 最高级会议的举行 towards the end of 2018 as the deadline for signing a divorce deal approaches, in time for 及时赶上 its long march to ratification 批准 by March 2019.

这将体现为两种形式:一种是聚焦融合与增长的坚定议程;在马克龙的指导下,削弱民粹分子风头的“保护性”议程。以贸易为例,欧盟将与日本、墨西哥、拉美南方共同市场和澳大利亚等合作伙伴讨论(一些情况下是达成)不同开放层次的协议。但这种冒险家精神会被欧盟技术官僚的“现实主义”缓和——包括对外国投资进行审查和对歧视欧盟企业的国家进行报复。与英国的贸易谈判随着英国准备脱离欧盟也将展开。2018年末要准备好迎接深夜峰会谈判,因为到时候距离欧盟与英国签订离婚协议的最后期限越来越近,只有这样才可能赶上在2019年3月前完成批准程序。


The number of migrants and refugees crossing the Mediterranean has been cut, and after the traumas of 2015-16 the EU's leaders will seek to avoid any resurgence n. 复活;再现;再起. With their backing, Italy will keep talking to militias in Libya that have stemmed the flows. A long-running adj. 长期上演的;连续上演很长时间的 argument between EU governments on the internal distribution of migrants should be resolved, perhaps if the recalcitrant /rɪ'kælsɪtr(ə)nt/ adj. 反抗的;反对的;顽强的;不顺从的,桀骜不驯的 countries agree to resettle a token 〔行为、变化等〕装样子的,装模作样的;象征性的〔指为了表示守信而做,并将会做得更多〕 number of refugees directly from Africa and the MiddleEast.

穿越地中海的移民、难民数量已经减少。在经历2015年-2016年的创伤后,欧盟领导人将会尽力避免类似的事情再次发生。有了他们的支持,意大利将继续与帮助遏制了难民势头的利比亚民兵谈判。欧盟政府就内部分配难民的长期争吵应该得到解决,如果那些不服从分配的国家同意从非洲和中东接收象征性数量的难民。


Yet relative calm on that front 在此方面 will not heal some of the EU's deeper cleavages 分裂;裂痕;分歧. The Catalan problem is now the most dramatic of these. The rest of the EU will hope that the governments in Madrid and Barcelona can make their peace without mediation n. 调解;仲裁;调停, but may be forced to step in if the conflict takes a violent turn.

这一线的相对平静并不能治愈欧盟更深的分歧。加泰罗尼亚问题是最戏剧化的一个分歧。欧盟其他国家希望马德里政府和巴塞罗那政府能在没有调停的情况下和解。但如果冲突转向暴力,外部力量将不得不介入调停。


Elsewhere, Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orban, will step up his signature 明显特征,鲜明特色 blend of xenophobic illiberalism n. 反自由主义;非自由主义 and anti-Brussels bluster 咆哮,叫嚷,吆喝 in the run-up n. 助跑;预备阶段;抬高;急剧增长 to a spring election that should deliver his Fidesz party a third consecutive whopping adj. 巨大的;天大的 majority. The Polish government's assaults on the judiciary and other institutions could prompt the European Commission to take the first step towards suspending its EU voting rights.

其他地方,随着春季选举的来临,匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托将强化他标志性的仇外非自由主义和反布鲁塞尔言论,从而使他的青年民主主义者联盟连续第三次赢得绝对多数优势。波兰政府对司法和其他机制的威胁可能导致欧盟委员会第一次采取暂停一个国家欧盟投票权的举措。


Other eastern European governments are wary of the Hungarians and Poles, but they are as one on the juicy subsidies they receive from the EU's budget. In the spring governments will begin to debate a commission proposal for the budget running for up to seven years from 2020. The fight will be rough Britain's departure blows an annual € 9bn-10bn ($10bn-12bn) hole in the budget, and some net contributors are anyway keen to reinvent it, spending more on common priorities like migration and defence rather than motorways and sewage systems in eastern Europe. Germany might also try to use the budget to encourage weaker economies to reform.

其他东欧政府对匈牙利人和波兰人保持谨慎态度,但他们在从欧盟预算中拿到丰厚补贴的方面利益是一致的。春天的时候,欧盟各国政府将开始讨论欧委会始于2020年的七年预算方案。斗争将是艰难的:英国离开留下了每年90亿到100亿欧元(100亿 -120亿美元)的预算缺口,一些净出资国热切希望改革预算,把更多开支用在共同的优先事项上,比如移民和国防,而不是东欧的高速公路和下水道。德国也许会想利用这份预算鼓励更弱的经济体进行改革。


That will feed a broader debate on the architecture of the euro area. Here the priority is completing the banking union, still lacking a common fiscal backstop 

[口语]支持物,支撑物,支柱,后盾 for troubled banks and a Europe-wide deposit-insurance [保险] 存款保险 scheme. If German resistance to such "risk-sharing" can be overcome the door may open to institutional changes, such as beefing up 加强 the European Stability Mechanism, the euro's bail-out fund 援助资金. Germany will agree to Mr Macron's demands for a euro-zone budget solely on the condition 在……条件下 that it is too small to matter.

这将带来对欧元区架构更广泛的讨论。优先事项是完成银行联盟的组建,这个联盟对于出现问题的银行和欧洲存款保险计划还缺乏共同的财政支持。如果德国能够克服对这种“风险共担”的抵抗,机制性变革可能出现,比如加强欧元区救助基金欧洲稳定机制。德国将同意马克龙提出的加强该机制的预算要求,唯一的条件是它的预算规模小到不重要。


All this bargaining will also draw in the question of a successor to Mario Draghi as president of the European Central Bank (ECB). His term expires in late 2019. Germany might start to press the case for Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, who hews vi. 砍;劈;坚持 to the "ordoliberal" line(low deficits, stable prices, strong rules). Others will fiercely resist. 

这些讨价还价还将带来另一个问题:谁来接替马里奥·德拉吉成为欧洲央行行长。他的任期将2019年末到期。德国可能开始力推德国央行行长延斯·魏德曼接任。魏德曼坚持的是“奥尔多自由主义”(低赤字、稳定物价、严格的规则)。其他国家将强烈反对。


Barring an external shock, the economic seas should remain calm, allowing the ECB slowly to withdraw 撤出;撤消 its monetary stimulus 货币刺激. The weakest link in the euro area is slow-growth Italy, but its greater threat is political the rag-tag n. 下层社会;一塌糊涂的 Five-Star Movement could win the most votes in the election in the spring.

挡住外部震动,欧盟经济应该能够保持平稳,允许欧洲央行缓慢地退出货币刺激政策。欧元区内最弱的环节是经济增长缓慢的意大利,但它更大的威胁在政治方面:乌合之众五星运动党可能在春天的选举中赢得最多选票。


Outside the EU irascible adj. 易怒的 neighbours remain potential sources of instability—not only Russia, but also the Western Balkans, where tensions are running high and external powers are contesting a complex geopolitical game. Turkey, sliding into authoritarianism, is a constant headache; the EU may axe vt. 削减;用斧砍 its stagnant adj. 停滞的;不景气的;污浊的;迟钝的 membership talks. Yet regional frictions, along with the ongoing terror threat, will also spur the EU's nascent adj. 初期的;开始存在的,发生中的 conversations on co-operation in intelligence and defence.

欧盟外不安分的邻居仍然是不稳定因素的潜在来源——不仅仅是俄罗斯,也包括西巴尔干国家,当地局势紧张,外部力量正在展开复杂的地缘政治竞赛。滑向威权主义的土耳其持续让人头痛。欧盟可能取消其停滞已久的入欧谈判。但地区摩擦,加上持续的恐怖主义威胁,也将促进欧盟在情报和

国防合作方面刚刚开始的合作对话。


Back to where the tragedy began

回到悲剧开始的地方

The year's most symbolic moment will come in August if Greece's government can manage to exit its third bailout. It was the mishandling 错误地处理;瞎弄;胡乱操作;胡乱处置 of Greece's catastrophe in 2010 that sparked the euro-zone crisis and the years of misery that followed. A "clean" exit to the capital markets for Greece is by no means assured, and difficult talks on the country's debt lie ahead 即将来临;在前面. But what better way to show that the EU is out of the woods 出森林;脱离险境;脱离困境 than the liberation of its most troubled member?

如果希腊政府能够退出第三个救助计划,2018年最有象征意义的时刻将出现在8月。正是因为2010年对希腊出现的困境处理不当才导致了欧元区危机和多年的痛苦。希腊“干净地”从救助计划退出进入资本市场不是板上钉钉的事,债务问题的艰难谈判也正在前方。但让欧盟最深陷麻烦的成员实现自由,还有比这更好的办法来显示欧盟已经脱离险境了吗?


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